Define probability steps based on completed signals: validated problem, multithreaded champion, executive alignment, agreed evaluation plan, and approved commercial terms. Each rung requires proof. As proof accumulates, probability climbs. This keeps optimism honest, improves deal prioritization, and lets you model revenue with fewer surprises and fewer tense, last-minute recalibrations.
Track time-in-stage visibly. If a deal exceeds your median by a set threshold, it flashes for action: escalate, reframe value, or move on. Every opportunity must hold a next-step date agreed by the buyer. This simple pair—aging plus next step—rescues momentum and protects forecasts from quietly expiring commitments.
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